26 Septiembre 2006
UBS
Meanwhile, comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher continued to express concern over firmness in inflation, but also allowed that there was a "serious correction" underway in US housing and slower growth should lower inflation over time. All in all, the mix of data and comments was sufficient to continue the rally in rate futures underway since the FOMC result last Wednesday, with the March Euro$ implied yield falling another 4 bp Monday after last week's 18 bp decline, pricing increasing risk of an early 2007 easing. The dollar's ability to stabilize against this backdrop is notable and, with our FX Flow Monitor showing a scramble to establish USD short positions last week, this has caught the market somewhat wrong-footed. Dollar gains Monday vs. the EUR were consistent with a bounce in other higher yielding G10 currencies, with the NZD and AUD bouncing on the session. Falling crude prices seem to have also moderated pessimism with respect to the US outlook, with the NYMEX contract bouncing off new 6 month lows below $60 this morning. However, we suspect the environment for carry trades is unlikely to be particularly healthy in the near-term, with other risk sensitive assets continuing to trade nervously Monday, while we would not look to weaker crude prices as a source of USD support either given our view that further erosion in crude prices is not likely and that concerns over global growth may be partly responsible for the retreat in crude.
......Ahead Tuesday, primary focus in the US will be on Conference Board Consumer Confidence Data at 14 GMT. We expect that the recent retreat in petrol prices will translate into an above consensus bounce in the headline index to 104 from 99.6 last month, and a strong bounce in the more volatile UBS Index of Investor Optimism reported Monday supports our view. Also of note, Senators Graham and Schumer are scheduled to meet with Treasury Secretary Paulson to discuss China, and may communicate more information on the prospects for a vote this week on their bill.
Bloomberg
Japan Stocks May Gain as U.S. Slowdown Concerns Ease; Nissan Seen Rising Japanese stocks may gain on speculation a slowdown in the U.S., the world's largest economy, is not as severe as originally thought after housing sales fell less than expected. Nissan Motor Co. may pace gains.
New Zealand Annual Trade Gap Narrows on Exports of Aluminum, Milk Powder New Zealand's annual trade deficit narrowed in August as a gain in exports of aluminum, milk powder, meat and logs outpaced growth in imports.
Thailand's Military Junta to Probe Thaksin Graft Charges, May Seize Assets Thailand's junta set up an eight- member panel to probe graft allegations against the government of Thaksin Shinawatra, which was ousted last week in a bloodless coup.
Economic Growth in New Zealand Probably Slowed Amid Higher Interest Rates New Zealand's economic growth rate probably slowed in the second quarter as record-high interest rates curbed consumer spending, business investment and construction.
New Zealand Government Pension Fund Net Rises on Property, Foreign Stocks The Government Superannuation Fund, a closed fund that provides pensions for New Zealand state workers, posted a 14 percent profit on its investments, twice the pace of a year earlier, on gains in overseas stocks.
Canada Says Surplus Widened to C$13.2 Billion Last Year on Higher Revenue Canada posted a budget surplus of C$13.2 billion ($11.8 billion) last fiscal year, its third- highest ever, as Prime Minister Stephen Harper benefited from rising commodity prices and cuts in program spending.
European Stocks Erase Gains After U.S. Housing Report; Ericsson, BHP Drop European stocks failed to sustain gains after a U.S. industry report showed sales of previously owned homes fell last month to the lowest since 2004.
Europe, Japan Wean Themselves From Reliance on U.S. Consumer, Just in Time Europe, Japan and emerging economies around the world are weaning themselves from dependence on the American consumer, and economists say it's just in time.
Pope Tells Muslim Ambassadors Dialogue Is `Vital' for a Peaceful Future Pope Benedict XVI said it was imperative for Muslims and Christians to work together to heal the wounds of the past for a peaceful future.
Inflation Rate in September Drops to Lowest Level Since March 2004 on Oil The inflation rate in Germany, Europe's largest economy, dropped to the lowest level in more than 2 years in September after oil prices retreated from a record.
Industrial Production Probably Rebounded in August on Auto Export Demand Japan's industrial production probably rebounded in August as accelerating export growth prompted manufacturers to increase output.
Euro May Drop on Speculation Waning German Confidence to Back Rate Pause The euro may weaken for a second day against the dollar and yen on expectations a survey today will show business confidence in Germany slipped this month.
Ten-Year Government Bonds Slip as One-Month Low Yields Keep Investors Away Japanese 10-year government bonds slipped as yields at a one-month low damped investor demand.
Pound Rises to Highest Against Euro in 15 Months on Interest-Rate Outlook The pound rose to its highest against the euro since June 2005 after Bank of England Deputy Governor John Gieve was reported as saying he considered backing a second straight increase in interest rates this month.
U.S. Stocks Rally, Sending S&P 500 to Five-Year High, on Economic Outlook U.S. stocks rallied, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a five-year high, after Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the economy remains strong.Resales of U.S. Homes Fall; Median Price Drops for First Time in 11 Years Prices of existing homes in the U.S. fell last month for the first time in 11 years as sales declined to the lowest level since early 2004.
Amaranth's Losses May Make Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Biggest Winners Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street giants that sell more of everything from stocks and bonds to risk-analysis software to the burgeoning hedge fund industry, may be the biggest winners after Amaranth Advisors LLC said it lost $6 billion on natural-gas trades.
Fed's Fisher Says Inflation Is a Bigger Concern Than Slowing Growth Rate Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he's more concerned about rising prices than he is about the slowing economy.
FAZ
Der Papst ermahnt den Islam zu Gewaltlosigkeit
"Vom Dialog hängt unsere Zukunft ab" / Treffen mit Botschaftern muslimischer Länder
Papst Benedikt XVI. hat am Montag in Castel Gandolfo bei Rom die beim Heiligen Stuhl akkreditierten Botschafter der muslimischen Staaten in einer Audienz zu Toleranz und Gewaltlosigkeit im Dialog der Kulturen und Religionen und zum Frieden ermahnt.
Barroso: Nach 2007 Pause bei ErweiterungAn diesem Dienstag will die Europäische Kommission ihren voraussichtlich letzten Bericht über Rumänien und Bulgarien vor dem EU-Beitritt der beiden Länder vorstellen. Es wird erwartet, daß die Kommission ihre Aufnahme in die Gemeinschaft zum 1.
Regierungen: EU gegen Illegale mobilisieren...Frankreichs, Italiens, Spaniens, Portugals, Zyperns, Griechenlands, Maltas und Sloweniens haben eine "starke Mobilisierung" der EU gegen illegale Einwanderung im Mittelmeerraum und Südeuropa verlangt.
Machtwechsel in Tokio
Shinzo Abe hat eine volle Agenda. Wenn er Junichiro Koizumi an diesem Dienstag als Ministerpräsident Japans ablöst, wird von ihm nicht nur erwartet, die von seinem Vorgänger so kraftvoll forcierten Strukturreformen weiter voranzutreiben.
Amerika droht China mit Strafzöllen
Kongreßabgeordnete: Unsere Geduld geht zu EndeDer amerikanische Kongreß will den Druck auf China weiter erhöhen, schnell eine Aufwertung seiner Landeswährung Yuan zum Dollar zuzulassen.
Die Börse heute Ruhe bewahren Kunst erhalten
Nachdem sich der französische Geschäftsklimaindex im September schon ein wenig abgekühlt hat, schauen die Marktbeobachter nun mit Argusaugen auf den deutschen Ifo-Index.
Chart des Tages
Der Preis für Rohöl ist am Montag vorübergehend weiter gesunken. In New York hat die Sorte West Texas Intermediate (WTI) im frühen elektronischen Handel die Marke von 60 Dollar je Barrel unterschritten.
Ungarn erhöht Leitzins auf 7,75 ProzentDie ungarische Zentralbank (MNB) hat am Montag die Leitzinsen um 50 Basispunkte auf 7,75 Prozent angehoben. Der Zinsanstieg kam nicht unerwartet, sondern war von Analysten in diesem Rahmen vorausgesagt.
Rückschläge trotz Fusionsfiebers
Unter den Bergwerkskonzernen des rohstoffreichen Kanada grassiert weiterhin hohes Fusionsfieber. Das hatte in diesem Jahr bereits für Rekordstände an der Börse Toronto gesorgt.
Ecuadors Wahlen werden Nervenprobe für Gläubiger
Führender Kandidat schließt Zwangsumschuldung nicht aus / Soziale Bedürfnisse haben VorrangDie Aussichten für die am 15. Oktober stattfindenden Präsidentenwahlen in Ecuador zerren zunehmend an den Nerven der Besitzer von ecuadorianischen Staatsanleihen.
Börsen trotzen Inflationssorgen in Nordamerika
Trotz aufkeimender Inflationssorgen in Amerika haben sich die europäischen Börsen am Montag zum Schluß wieder gefangen. Nach zwischenzeitlichen Verlusten verzeichneten die meisten Aktienplätze im Schlußkursvergleich doch noch leichte Gewinne.
Niedrigere Inflation läßt Euro fallen
Die unerwartet geringe Preissteigerung in Teilen Deutschlands hat den Euro am Montag unter die Marke von 1,28 Dollar gedrückt. Händler sagten, die Verbraucherpreise hätten neue Debatten über den weiteren Zinskurs der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) ausgelöst.
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IHT
Barroso says EU must freeze growth
The European Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, left, said Monday that the admission of Romania and Bulgaria marked the last phase of integration in an EU that has been stretched beyond capacity for now. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin of France cautioned that further expansion of the bloc risked making it unworkable.
For a better life, North Koreans turn 'traitor'
Bouquet of roses may have note: 'Made in China'
The elaborate effort to supply cut flowers to the world also aims to bring jobs and wealth to China's impoverished heartland.
Oil dips below $60 a barrel, but its slide may be temporary
Crude oil prices fell below $60 a barrel Monday for the first time in six months, as nervous speculators continued their retreat from the commodity markets, frightened by the improving picture for oil supplies and cooling economies.
Briefly: Hungary draws warning from EU over its deficit
...will warn Hungary to pare spending, cut debt and take "rigorous" measures to trim its ballooning deficit, a draft ruling obtained Monday said. The Hungarian budget deficit this year will be 7.5 percent of gross domestic product, more than double the EU limit of 3 percent, according to the government's own estimates, the draft showed. In 2007, the deficit is expected to grow to 10.1 percent.
Can China win a Western game? (Solo si tienes tiempo)
Will immigration brake British inflation?
Jolanta Muraczewska and thousands more like her who have arrived in Britain since the European Union expanded are willing to work for minimal pay, holding down wage inflation in the second- largest economy in Europe.
Around the Markets: Gauging the slump of commodities
The plunge in the prices of oil, gold and copper might hurt stock markets in countries like Russia, South Africa and Canada.
Euro zone has output problem
Jean-Claude Trichet, said that labor productivity was the biggest problem facing the economy of the 12 countries using the euro.
Price drop in crude puts pressure on energy funds
Mutual fund investors, captivated by oil's 50 percent appreciation over the past two years, increased their energy holdings in 2006 just in time to lose $4.5 billion.
Europe, Japan and emerging economies around the world are weaning themselves from dependence on the American consumer, and economists say it is just in time.
Demand in the U.S. economy is slowing as the housing market falters, a development that the International Monetary Fund on Sept. 14 called a key risk to global expansion. If so, it is a risk that the biggest exporting nations are better prepared to weather now than five years ago. "Domestic demand in so many other parts of the world is picking up," said Jim O'Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs Group in London. "If there ever was a good time for the U.S. to slow, this is it." The share of global exports purchased by U.S. consumers and businesses fell to 17.9 percent in 2005 from 21.8 percent in 2000 as demand increased in the European Union, Japan and emerging markets in Asia and Eastern Europe. Exporting nations in Europe and Asia are poised to grab a larger share of world markets with trade agreements that do not include the United States. The European Union said this month it would seek bilateral trade deals with China and South Korea. In August, Japan proposed a 16-nation economic bloc, including 10 Southeast Asian nations, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. "That will expand trade amongst these countries at the expense of trade with the U.S.," said Michael Mussa, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund who is now with the Institute for International Economics in Washington. Of course, the world is far from becoming immune to the ups and downs of the U.S. economy, said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The U.S. is still one of the largest drivers of growth," Bryson said. "We're probably decades away from people saying the U.S. won't matter." The United States remains the biggest importer by far, buying $1.7 trillion in goods and services from the rest of the world last year, more than double the amount that second-place Germany took in, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a London-based research company. Still, said Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate economist who teaches at Columbia University in New York, "the U.S. is no longer the single pivotal player to world trade that it was, because China and India and other nations have become a major part of the engine of global growth the past five years." The 2001 U.S. recession struck a blow to the rest of the world. The economy in Taiwan contracted 2.2 percent that year, its worst slump on record, as exports tumbled. The economies of Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand were hurt, too. Recessions in Argentina and Mexico deepened, while growth in Germany and Italy slowed. Now, as the U.S. economy decelerates, other economies are expanding. U.S. economic growth is expected to slow to 2.6 percent in the final three months of 2006 from 5.6 percent in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Growth in consumer spending - representing more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy - will slow to 2.7 percent from the first quarter's 4.8 percent gain. The euro region is on track this year for the fastest growth since 2000, led by Germany, the largest economy in Europe. Domestic demand in Japan is reviving after seven years of deflation, and the Chinese economy grew in the second quarter at the fastest rate in more than a decade. "It is better for the U.S. not to be in a dominating position, and to have other countries rising faster," Citigroup in New York and the author of "The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin." "Diversification will make the system more robust."Similarly, the proportion of European Union exports going to the United States declined to 7.9 percent last year from 9.1 percent in 2000. While important to trade for the 25-nation EU, the United States has lost its preeminence there, said the European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet. "As regards trade links, the United Kingdom is more important for the euro area than the United States," Trichet said
Americas: Shares rise with Fed's help
Helped by falling commodity prices and an end to rising interest rates, U.S. stocks - led by computer companies - headed for their best third quarter since 1997.
Currencies: Rate inaction may drive the yen to a 20-year low
The yen may fall to a 20-year low as individual investors in Japan join speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in selling the currency. Measured against the currencies of Japan's largest trading partners, the yen is approaching its lowest value since 1985, an index prepared by the nation's central bank shows. Japanese investors bought more overseas bonds last month than ever before. Traders on the Chicago futures exchange have a $9.74 billion wager that the yen will decline. The currency has fallen 4.3 percent against the dollar in the past four months as a rebound in the economy faltered, suggesting that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates again this year from 0.25 percent. The prospect that rates will remain among the lowest in the world has prompted Japanese to invest more of their $6.55 trillion in currency and deposits outside of the country. "We could see more massive outflows," said Lara Rhame, a senior currency strategist at Credit Suisse Group in New York. "It's the yield story that's driving Japanese investors abroad."
Commodities: Lower sales of European bullion may lift price of gold
European banks face a deadline of Monday to reach their annual gold sales limit of 500 tons, and they had shed 380 tons of this year's allotment as of Sept. 19, according to the producer- funded World Gold Council in London.
"The market should breathe a sigh of relief with the concerns of any lumpy physical gold sales gone for the time being,".
..."It's unlikely that central banks will reach the 500-ton limit," said Paul Yusem, a gold investor in Lombard, Illinois. "For gold sales to be this much under the limit is exceptionally bullish."
Gold may gain on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again this year, weakening the dollar. Gold and the dollar often move in opposite directions. The dollar had the biggest weekly drop since June against the euro last week.
FTD
Ölpreis drückt Inflation auf Zwei-Jahres-Tief
Verbraucherpreise legen nur noch um ein Prozent zu Der zuletzt drastisch gesunkene Ölpreis hat den Preisanstieg in Deutschland im September auf den niedrigsten Stand seit Februar 2004 gedrückt. Gegenüber dem Vorjahresmonat legten die Verbraucherpreise voraussichtlich nur um 1,0 Prozent zu, wie das Statistische Bundesamt (Destatis) auf Grundlage von Ergebnissen aus sechs Bundesländern mitteilte. Im August hatte der Wert noch bei 1,7 Prozent gelegen. Die niedrige Jahresteuerungsrate führt Destatis vor allem auf die Entwicklung bei Heizöl und Kraftstoffen zurück. „Der Rückgang im Ölpreis schlägt direkt auf die Verbraucherpreise durch. Das sind gute Aussichten für die Preisstabilität 2007“.
Zinserhöhungen belasten Bundesetat
Opposition rechnet mit zusätzlichen Ausgaben in Milliardenhöhe · Steueränderungen kosten Bürger rund 140 Mrd. Euro Die Zinserhöhungspolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) wird den Bundeshaushalt nach Einschätzung führender Finanzpolitiker zusätzlich in Milliardenhöhe belasten. Da die EZB bis zum Jahresende weitere Zinsschritte vorbereite, seien neue Zinsausgaben von mindestens 1 Mrd. Euro im kommenden Jahr zu erwarten, warnte die haushaltspolitische Sprecherin der Grünen-Bundestagsfraktion.
Sinkender Ölpreis hilft EZB aus Misere
...Die Zahlen belegen, dass die unterliegende Inflationstendenz nicht so hoch ist, wie die EZB befürchtet“, sagte Jörg Krämer, Chefvolkswirt der Commerzbank. „Die Dringlichkeit von Zinserhöhungen ist nicht mehr ganz so groß“...Noch optimistischer ist Commerzbank-Chefökonom Krämer. Trotz Mehrwertsteuererhöhung prognostiziert er für 2007 im Schnitt 1,8 Prozent Teuerung. „Die EZB wird auf mittlere Sicht ihre Projektion senken müssen“.
Goldman Sachs gründet eigene Leben-Tochter
| Inflation zwingt Ungarn zu Zinserhöhung |
Börsen Europa: US-Konjunkturdaten drücken Indizes
Belastet von einem enttäuschenden Handelsauftakt an der Wall Street haben Europas Leitindizes gestern ihre anfangs verbuchten Gewinne bis Sitzungsende teilweise wieder eingebüßt. „Es gibt Befürchtungen, dass eine Abschwächung am US-Häusermarkt die Konsumausgaben trifft und die Stimmung belastet. Das könnte zu einer Verschlechterung der Unternehmensgewinne führen“
| Sinkende Inflation verleiht Bund-Future Aufwind |
Die Veröffentlichung von Inflationsdaten aus Deutschland unterstützte die ohnehin schon gute Stimmung an den Rentenmärkten. In den wichtigsten Bundesländern fielen den Daten der Landesämter zufolge die Verbraucherpreise von August auf September um 0,4 %. Damit ergibt sich nach Einschätzung von Volkswirten eine Jahresinflationsrate von bundesweit etwa 1,0 % nach 1,7 % im August.
HB
Börsen im Bann zwischen Ölpreis und Konjunkturangst Telekomaktien erholen sich – Debüt von BDI Biodiesel enttäuscht
Höhenflug des britischen Pfunds hält weiter an
Preisdaten aus Deutschland haben gestern den Ende vergangener Woche eingeleiteten Aufwärtstrend des Euros gestoppt. Die Verbraucherpreise in Teilen Deutschlands fielen weitaus geringer aus als Volkswirte erwartet hatten und ließen Zweifel an Leitzinserhöhungen im Euro-Raum über das nächste Jahr hinaus aufkommen....Grund dafür waren Äußerungen von John Gieve, Notenbank-Gouverneur der Bank of England (BoE). Gieve hatte von ernsthaften Überlegungen gesprochen, die Leitzinsen bereits bei der nächsten Sitzung ein weiteres Mal anzuheben.
GROSSVERBRAUCHER USA
Produktion
Die USA trugen 2005 rund 526 Mrd. Kubikmeter und damit 19 Prozent zur Welterdgasförderung bei. Sie verbrauchten mit knapp 634 Mrd. Kubikmetern aber 23 Prozent des weltweiten Angebots. Russland war mit einer Förderung von knapp 600 Mrd. Kubikmetern der Welt größter Gasproduzent – und förderte damit doppelt so viel Gas wie der Nahe Osten.
Reserven
Bei den Reserven liegen die Länder der Russischen Föderation mit 49 Bill. Kubikmetern weit vorn. Es folgen Iran mit 26 und Qatar mit 25 Bill. Kubikmetern. Die 5,5 Bill. Kubikmeter Reserven der USA reichen bei Fortschreibung des Verbrauchs nur zehn Jahre. Die Länder der ehemaligen Sowjetunion halten etwa ein Drittel der weltweiten Gasreserven, der Nahe Osten 40 Prozent.
Gold
Der Goldpreis könnte auch in dieser Woche steigen, nachdem er bereits in der vergangen Woche auf über 590 Dollar je Unze (31 Gramm) zugelegt hatte. Unter 27 durch die Agentur Bloomberg befragten Händlern, Investoren und Analysten rieten 18 zum Kauf von Gold. Bis heute können die europäischen Zentralbanken ihr jährliches Limit zum Verkauf von 500 Tonen ausschöpfen. Nach Angaben des Verbandes World Gold Council gaben sie bis zum 19. September nur 380 Tonnen ab, was Beobachter als gutes Zeichen interpretieren. Die Abgaben hatten im vergangenen Monat mit näher rückendem Fristende zugenommen. In dieser Zeit fiel der Goldpreis. Im vergangenen Jahr gaben die Zentralbanken – im ersten Jahr der auf fünf Jahre angelegten Verkaufsbeschränkung – 497 Tonnen ab.
posted by jorgitojavier @ 2:21 AM
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