2 Octubre 2006
Chicago-Area Business Activity Accelerates; Consumer Confidence Increases Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.1 percent last month, less than forecast and the smallest gain since November, as the tumbling housing market made Americans more thrifty.
European Confidence Unexpectedly Rises to Five-Year High; Inflation Slows Europeans' confidence in the economy unexpectedly increased to the highest in more than five years in September, underscoring the European Central Bank's concern that inflation will accelerate again next year.
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Increases to 85.4, Five-Month High Falling gasoline prices pushed confidence among American consumers to the highest level in five months in September, easing concern their spending will falter.
Fed Will Lower Interest Rates by March as Economy Slows, Citigroup Says The Federal Reserve will probably lower its benchmark interest rate in the first quarter of 2007 as slowing economic growth diminishes inflation pressures, according to economists at Citigroup Inc.
Germany's Retail Sales Unexpectedly Stagnate on Concerns Economy Will Slow German retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in August, with consumers reluctant to increase spending amid concern economic growth will slow next year.
India Economy Grows 8.9 Percent, Adding to Pressure to Lift Interest Rates India's economy expanded 8.9 percent last quarter, beating economists' forecasts and adding pressure on the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate for a fourth time this year to control inflation.
China Will Maintain `Stable' Yuan and Monetary Policies, Central Bank Says China will maintain ``stability'' in the yuan's exchange rate as well as the country's monetary policies, the central bank said today.
Japanese Bonds Drop for First Week in Three on View Deflation Won't Return Japanese 10-year government bonds posted a weekly drop, ending two weeks of gains, on expectations deflation is over and the central bank is likely to increase interest rates.
New Zealand Dollar, After Slide Last Week, May Decline on Rates Outlook New Zealand's dollar, which fell 1.3 percent last week, may extend its decline amid expectations investors will turn to nations with stronger economic growth and rising interest rates.
Canada's Dollar Posts Monthly Drop on Decline in Prices of Commodities The Canadian dollar dropped this month against its U.S. counterpart as commodity prices declined and the Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged.
Economy Grew 0.2 Percent in July, Led by Miners, Wholesalers and Brokers Canada's economy, the world's eighth-largest, expanded 0.2 percent in July, the most in four months, led by mining, wholesaling and financial services.
Airlines Now in `Impossible' Position as EU, U.S. Miss Agreement Deadline Carriers have been left in an ``impossible situation'' after the European Union and the U.S. yesterday failed to salvage an agreement on the exchange of passenger data, said the Association of European Airlines.
U.S. Passes Law to Curb Payments From Banks to Offshore Internet Casinos Congress passed legislation today that curbs financial payments from banks to offshore Internet casinos that are illegal under U.S. law.
European Stocks Advance Close to Five-Year High for Week, Led by Endesa European stocks gained this week, ending the quarter close to a five-year high, as bids for Endesa SA and Iberdrola SA of Spain fanned more takeover speculation in a record year of mergers and acquisitions.
German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Stagnate on Concern of Economic Slowdown German retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in August, with consumers reluctant to increase spending amid concern economic growth will slow next year.
Stocks Gain on Industrial Production, Rise for a Fourth Quarter in Five Japanese stocks rose, completing the fourth quarterly gain in five. Domestic demand-related shares including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. advanced after industrial production rebounded from a drop in July to reach a record.
Jobless Rate Holds Near Eight-Year Low of 4.1 Percent, Matching Forecasts Japan's jobless rate held near an eight-year low for a second month, signaling wages may rise and drive a recovery in consumer spending.
Dollar Rises Versus Euro as Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Increases The dollar posted its biggest monthly gain against the euro since February as reports showed the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure rose last month and consumer confidence increased.
U.S. Employment Probably Moderated Last Month, Economic Report May Show Employment growth probably moderated last month and manufacturing cooled, suggesting there's little momentum in the U.S. economy as the fourth quarter begins, economists said ahead of reports this week.
U.S. Stocks Advance as Reports Suggest Fed Increases Haven't Hurt Economy U.S. stocks climbed this week, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average within 44 points of a record, as economic reports suggested that the Federal Reserve has kept inflation in check without slowing the economy too much.
FAZ
Amerika verlängert Iran-Sanktionen
Die Vereinigten Staaten haben ihre Sanktionen gegen Iran sowie gegen ausländische Firmen, die in den iranischen Energiesektor - zumal in Nukleartechnik - investieren, für weitere fünf Jahre verlängert.
Gorbatschow rügt Amerika - Der frühere sowjetische Präsident Gorbatschow hat nach einem Bericht der kroatischen Nachrichtenagentur Hina im dalmatinischen Primosten heftige Kritik an den Vereinigten Staaten geübt.
Mehr Steuern und Abgaben in Italiens Haushalt
Padoa-Schioppa: Die Notlage in der Staatskasse ist vorüber / Niedrigere ArbeitskostenEine Umverteilung von Mitteln zugunsten der Italiener mit weniger Einkommen, eine Senkung der Abgabenlast der Unternehmen für festangestellte Mitarbeiter und eine Reduzierung des Haushaltsdefizits enthält Italiens Haushaltsvorlage für 2007.
Kleine Schritte sind sinnvoll
Am kommenden Donnerstag ist es wieder soweit: Der Europäische Zentralbankrat dürfte eine weitere Zinserhöhung vornehmen, nunmehr auf 3,25 Prozent. Er kann darauf verweisen, daß sich die Bedingungen für einen andauernden Wirtschaftsaufschwung im Euro-Raum zuletzt wieder verbessert haben.
Hoffnung auf "sanfte Landung" hebt die Laune der Investoren
Sinkende Energiepreise und abflauende Inflationsgefahren / Der Bericht vom Internationalen Finanzmarkt
Die Korrektur an den Finanzmärkten im Mai war vielleicht doch zu schmerzhaft, als daß die Marktteilnehmer jetzt allzu begeistert reagierten. Aber die Zuversicht, daß es vielleicht doch nicht so dramatisch kommt wie im Frühsommer noch befürchtet, spiegelt sich derzeit in einem bemerkenswerten Kursaufschwung an den Aktienmärkten wider. Die Hoffnung, daß die Vereinigten Staaten eine "sanfte Landung" ihrer Konjunktur erleben, ermutigt Investoren. Kapital, das nach der Mai-Korrektur vorsichtig zurückgehalten wurde, strömt an die Finanzmärkte zurück. Die Risikobereitschaft steigt wieder.
IHT
Hamas and Fatah shoot it out in Gaza
Hamas and Fatah gunmen fought running battles in Gaza on Sunday, as Hamas forces tried to disrupt Fatah-organized protests over unpaid government salaries. Five Palestinians were killed and more than 75 were wounded.
South Korean hoping to reflect nation's rise
Ban Ki Moon's attempt to succeed Kofi Annan as secretary general of the UN is not just a personal campaign by an ambitious man. It also carries the backing of his home country.
Airbus seen delaying A380 again
Airbus will scale back deliveries of the A380 superjumbo passenger jet for a third time and reduce costs by as much as €2 billion by cutting jobs and shifting production.
U.S. growth slows, new data show
The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter, less than previously estimated, as business spending, consumer demand and homebuilding slowed.
European commodity stocks climbed Thursday as metal prices gained and ABN AMRO recommended investing in mining shares.
Strategies: Profit growth is slowing
Corporate profits have grown at double-digit rates for 17 consecutive quarters, helping U.S. equity markets survive the twin poisons of rising interest rates and high energy prices.
Currencies: Buoyant U.S. shares give incentive to buy dollar
...speculation that gains in American stocks would attract international investors to the U.S. currency.The Dow Jones industrial average briefly cleared a closing high set in 2000 before retreating, and has gained 2.6 percent for September, giving investors from abroad an incentive to hold the currency. "The dollar is getting support from foreign money flowing into the U.S. equity market," said Brian Garvey, a senior currency strategist at State Street Global Markets in Boston.
Americas: Dow flirts with record high
Extending a weeklong rally, U.S. stocks rose Thursday despite a government report showing that the economy expanded at a slower rate than previously estimated. The Dow Jones industrial average briefly surpassed an all-time closing high set in 2000 before retreating, but was still in positive territory during late trading.
UBS
JPY Upbeat manufacturers: The BOJ Tankan for Q3 was released this morning and the large manufacturing index rose to 24, beating market expectations of an unchanged 21. However, the non-manufacturing index was in line with expectations at 20, and the all-industry capex outlook was 11.5%, slightly less than market expectations of 11.8%. The data does not really change the fundamental outlook in anyway, although the improvement in the manufacturing index could help the BOJ to "sell" a rate hike, and hence BOJ communication is key going forward. USDJPY initially fell on the release to lows of 117.87 from 118.05 but has since fully retraced that move. We are short GBPJPY this week as we think that BOJ rate expectations are stabilising. IMM data on Friday reported that the spec market is still very short JPY. Finance Minister Omi said on Friday that moves in EURJPY have been rough, a repeat of the views offered by the MOF Vice Finance Minister Fujii on Thursday.
FTD
| USA erneuern Sanktionen gegen Iran |
| Konjunktur-Wochenschau: Per saldo entstehen immer mehr Jobs in Deutschland |
| Ölpreis fällt trotz sinkender Fördermenge |
Märkte erwarten EZB-Doppelschlag
Volkswirte sehen Leitzins Ende 2006 bei 3,5 Prozent · Euro-Inflation fällt im September auf 1,8 Prozent Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) wird nach Einschätzung von Volkswirten international führender Banken per Doppelschlag ihren Leitzins bis Ende des Jahres auf 3,50 Prozent anheben. Wie die monatliche Zinsumfrage der FTD ergibt, rechnen alle befragten Beobachter mit einer Zinserhöhung auf der EZB-Sitzung am Donnerstag. Fast 90 Prozent erwarten einen weiteren Schritt am 7. Dezember. Die Unsicherheit über den Kurs der Notenbank im Jahr 2007 ist dagegen so ausgeprägt wie selten: Während einige den Leitzins in einem Jahr bei 4,0 Prozent sehen, rechnen andere mit 3,0 Prozent.
| Wochenausblick: Jagd nach dem Dow-Jones-Rekord |
Weniger Staatsanleihen in der Euro-Zone
Die Erholung in der Euro-Zone führt zu einem kleineren Angebot am Bondmarkt: JP Morgan rechnet im Schlussquartal mit einem Volumen europäischer Staatsanleihen von 80 bis 85 Mrd. Euro, 15 bis 20 Mrd. Euro weniger als vor drei Monaten. Die starke Konjunktur spült den Staaten mehr Steuern in die Kassen. Analysten erwarten, dass die Kurse der Anleihen steigen, weil es weniger Emissionen gibt. Vor allem Italien, Griechenland und Portugal würden profitieren.... Der Inflationsoptimismus erwies sich auch am Freitag als robust, als der Anstieg des von der Fed favorisierten Preismaßes auf ein Elf-Jahres-Hoch bekannt wurde.Devisen als neues Investment
Währungsspekulation war lange Bankensache. Jetzt dürfen auch Privatanleger ran W ie viel Prozent Währungen gehören in ein Anlegerportfolio? Null, war lange Zeit die Antwort der Finanzwissenschaft. Es galt als ausgemacht, dass niemand verlässlich und dauerhaft Gewinne mit Devisenspekulationen machen kann. Doch das stimme nicht, sagt Ingo Ahrens, Leiter des Fondsvertriebs bei Goldman Sachs Asset Management: „Viele Transaktionen am Devisenmarkt sind nicht renditegesteuert. Notenbanken und Händler von Waren haben ganz andere Ziele“, sagt Ahrens. „Das ist der Grund dafür, dass Fondsmanager Wert aus Währungen ziehen können.“ Der Währungsmarkt ist der größte und liquideste der Welt: Täglich werden Devisen im Volumen von 1500 Mrd. Euro gehandelt, der Markt ist um ein Vielfaches größer als die Aktienbörsen der Welt zusammen. Für den Handel der Banken auf eigene Rechnung sind Devisen seit langem sehr wichtig – inzwischen gibt es auch einige Fonds für Privatanleger, mit denen sie neben Aktien, Anleihen und Immobilien auch Währungen als Anlageklasse in ihr Depot mischen können. Als Hauptvorteil versprechen die Anbieter Renditen, die unabhängig von der Entwicklung des Aktien- oder Anleihemarkts sind. Dadurch soll das Gesamtrisiko des Anleger-Portfolios sinken. „Währungen werden auf Investorenseite zunehmend als eigene Asset-Klasse wahrgenommen“, sagt Richard Zellmann, bei First Private zuständig für die Betreuung institutioneller Kunden. Die bankunabhängige Frankfurter Fondsgesellschaft hat zum 7. September den Fonds Forex Global aufgelegt, der nach einem quantitativen Modell anhand zuvor definierter Kennzahlen Trends aufspüren soll. „Währungen werden auch für Privatanleger immer interessanter“, sagt Ahrens. „Alle Anlagemöglichkeiten, die nicht mit Aktien oder Anleihen korrelieren, sind stark gefragt.“ Vor 15 Jahren hat Goldman Sachs den Fonds GS Global Currency Portfolio gestartet. Der Fonds schaffte seit 1991 eine durchschnittliche Jahresrendite von acht Prozent. In 12 von 14 Jahren habe Goldman die Benchmark, den Interbankenzins Libor, geschlagen, so die Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor’s. Stark darunter lag der Fonds nur 1998, als der Yen stark schwankte. Anders als First Private setzt die US-Bank nur zur Hälfte auf ein quantitatives Verfahren, gleichberechtigt ist die Entscheidung der Fondsmanager nach Intuition und Analyse. „Trendfolgemodelle erzielen am Devisenmarkt gute Ergebnisse, sind aber sehr schwankungsanfällig“, sagt Ahrens. Die Deutsche-Bank-Tochter DWS bietet ebenfalls zwei Währungsfonds an. Den Fonds Forex Strategy gibt es seit April 2003, der Hedge-Fonds Long-Short Currencies kam im Juli 2004 dazu. Seit Auflegung hat der Forex Strategy neun Prozent an Wert gewonnen und 1,5 Mrd. Euro Anlagevermögen angezogen. Der Hedge-Fonds legte um insgesamt 18 Prozent zu, in dem nicht öffentlich beworbenen Fonds liegen 175 Mio. Euro Kapital. Außerdem sind der Activest-Devisenfonds und Crédit Agricoles Funds Dynarbitrage auf dem deutschen Markt. Der Activest-Fonds legte seit dem Start im Oktober 2004 um 5,3 Prozent zu, der französische Fonds schaffte seit März 2005 ein Plus von 1,5 Prozent.
America’s main stockmarket index is nearing a record high. Are investors overly optimistic?
The Dow is a powerful symbol in a country that seems increasingly worried about the possibility of a recession.
More worrying still is the unsettled state of the housing market. A long boom seems finally to be coming to an end. And foreigners may already be losing their zeal for America. Previously a torrent of borrowed capital flowed into the country. Americans now appear to be paying out significantly more to foreign creditors than they are getting from foreign investments, something that has not happened for some 90 years.
Lower energy prices should ease consumer finances and benefit America’s soaring current-account deficit.
productivity growth is likely to stay strong for quite some time, which will increase the pace at which the economy can grow without triggering inflation. Optimists, at least, can believe that markets will ride high for some time yet.
Cheaper oil is welcome but it is unclear whether lower prices will last. Worse, the uncertainty may reflect worries that America's economy is weakening too
4CAST - FX NOW! GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Flows : Cable could rise, as UK house inflation at 2-yr highs (CB)
Yen and yang
China-bashers may soon take aim at the yen, the world's most mispriced currency
WHICH country has the world's most undervalued currency? Yet by many measures the Japanese yen is now cheaper than the Chinese yuan. It cannot be long before America and Europe put Japan in the dock, alongside China, and accuse it of keeping its currency unfairly low.
Until this year the yen's weakness was easy to explain: since 2001 the Bank of Japan (BoJ) had been printing loads of money in order to defeat deflation. An increased supply of yen relative to that of other currencies pushed down its price. But the yen's softness this year is a puzzle. Since the BoJ abandoned “quantitative easing” in March, Japan's monetary base has withered. Deflation has gone away, and in July the BoJ raised interest rates, which had been stuck at zero for five years. Furthermore, Japan had a whopping current-account surplus of $165 billion in the year to July (the latest figure for China, for 2005, is only $161 billion, although it is expected to rise in 2006). In many respects, the yen should be climbing.
Since mid-2001 the yen has fallen by around 35% against the euro, while against the weaker dollar it is little changed. Japanese exporters have also gained competitiveness relative to South Korea/
Not only is the yen cheap in nominal terms, but many years of falling prices in Japan have made it even more competitive. Its real trade-weighted value fell this month to its lowest since 1982 (see chart). The latest update of The Economist's Big Mac index (see article) showed that the yen was by far the most undervalued of the developed world's currencies—ie, hamburgers are cheapest in Tokyo. Using a more sophisticated model, Stephen Jen, of Morgan Stanley, reckons that the yen is 12% undervalued against the dollar, whereas the yuan is only 7% too weak. Against the euro, the yen is almost 30% below its fair value.
If the yen is the most mispriced currency on the planet, why are Japan's trade partners not complaining loudly, as they do about the yuan? Jean-Claude Trichet, have started to argue recently that the yen is not bearing its fair share of the dollar's decline. But a big difference between Japan and China is that the yen floats freely and is not being held down by currency intervention as it was back in 2003-04.
Such a cheap currency might seem a good investment. But to predict where the yen is heading, you have to understand why it is so weak today. One reason is that at 0.25%, Japanese interest rates are still unattractive. And inflation has gone up by more than the quarter-point rise in Japanese interest rates, leaving real rates close to zero and even lower than last year.
The most popular explanation of the yen's languor is a revival of the “carry trade” (ie, borrowing in cheap yen to buy higher-yielding investments elsewhere). This means selling the currency and thus pushes it down. In the past month or so, carry trades have become more attractive; the expectation that the BoJ would raise interest rates again this year has faded as a result of slower economic data. If this is the case, at some stage the yen could rebound sharply if America's economy stumbles and falling American interest rates narrow the gap with Japan's.
However, Mr Jen is sceptical that the carry trade is the main culprit. He reckons that most investments have gone into dollars not euros, and so cannot explain why the yen has gained against the European currency. Moreover, net outflows from Japan of investment in fixed-income bonds have actually declined this year—especially in the past few months.
Mr Jen has an alternative explanation for why the yen is so feeble against the euro: the “global funnelling hypothesis”. This focuses on the net trade and capital flows of Asian and oil-exporting countries, which could run a combined current-account surplus of around $900 billion this year. In simple terms, the world buys from these countries and they then invest the net proceeds in financial markets.
Most international trade is settled in dollars or euros, so importers have to sell their local currencies in order to buy from abroad. Mr Jen calls these “upstream currency flows”. “Downstream flows”, in contrast, are what Asia and oil exporters do with their accumulated reserves. The currency compositions of the two flows do not necessarily match.
Because Asian countries trade a lot with each other, the bulk of upstream flows involves the selling of yen and other Asian currencies. In contrast, most downstream flows go into dollars and euros. Central banks prefer to put money into well-developed financial markets, so the liquid and secure markets of America, the euro area and Britain attract more capital.
This causes a funnelling from Asian currencies into dollars and euros. Emerging economies' rising foreign reserves therefore push the yen down against the euro, regardless of fair-value calculations. This also explains the strength of the pound. Recent figures show that it has knocked the yen off its perch as the world's third most popular reserve currency.
If correct, this theory suggests that the yen could remain weak for longer than many analysts expect. In the long term, however, the yen's huge undervaluation means that it will eventually bounce back. Last week was the 21st birthday of the G7's Plaza Accord, which triggered a huge rise in the yen. The yen is much more undervalued today than it was then.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Falling oil prices cheer central bankers
HB
Die Konjunktur wird der entscheidende Faktor
Unerwartet gute Konjunkturdaten aus den USA haben am Freitagnachmittag die Kurse europäischer Staatsanleihen belastet. Der Bund-Future beendete die Woche nach anfänglichen Kursgewinnen mit einem Minus von 31 Ticks bei 118,11 Zählern. Die Rendite der zehnjährigen Bundesanleihe kletterte auf 3,71 Prozent.
Yen fällt auf tiefsten Stand seit April US-Senator Bill Graham heftete sich die Wechselkurskorrektur von insgesamt fünf Prozent in gut einem Jahr gestern ans eigene Revers. Er begründete in einer Pressekonferenz, warum er und Senator Charles Schumer einen Gesetzentwurf nicht mehr weiter verfolgen wollen, durch den China wegen angeblicher Wechselkursmanipulation mit Strafzöllen belegt worden wäre. „Letztlich war der Gesetzentwurf als Weckruf gedacht, und in dieser Hinsicht war er ein phänomenaler Erfolg“
Währungsgesicherte Fonds von Credit Suisse und Parvest liegen vorn
Der Höhenflug der Börsen ist umso bemerkenswerter, weil das wirtschaftliche Umfeld eher auf härtere Zeiten hindeutet. So hat sich die Konjunktur in den USA spürbar abgekühlt. Das Wirtschaftswachstum betrug zuletzt nur noch 2,6 Prozent, und ein Einbruch auf dem Immobilienmarkt könnte die Rate im kommenden Jahr weiter nach unten drücken. Die kurzfristigen Zinsen sind in den vergangenen zwei Jahren kontinuierlich gestiegen und haben die Wachstumsmöglichkeiten der Wirtschaft begrenzt. Angesichts dieser Vorzeichen werden auch die Unternehmen ihre bisherigen Rekordgewinne kaum noch steigern können.
EZB überzeugt Skeptiker
Die anstehende Zinserhöhung der Notenbank findet in der Fachwelt fast einhellige Zustimmung
posted by jorgitojavier @ 12:14 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home