03 Octubre 2006

UBS

USD The USD was able to continue its gains against a beleaguered JPY despite the strong Tankan numbers, but retreated overnight following the weak manufacturing ISM, ignoring the stronger-than-expected pending home sales numbers. The USD weakened most against the NZD overnight. If the prospects of rate hikes in Japan did not as yet harm the USD, the prospects of Fed rate cuts may. The Fed Fund Futures are currently pricing in a 50bp cut in Fed rate through 2007, with the first cut only expected in Q2, but we are expecting more cuts to be priced in as we move into November. With the next round of monthly data, to be released this month, likely to lend more support to the notion that Fed is more likely to ease than to hike again, we could see the USD facing a tougher climb against both the JPY and the EUR at elevated levels....We expect vehicle sales to recover to 16.5mn from 16.0mn in August but the trend remains negative given the 16.9mn annualised rate seen in the first quarter.

JPY Japanese investors are still looking to park their monies outside the country. The MoF data released yesterday showed that investors bought some US$27.2bn worth of foreign bonds in the 3 months to September. In total, Japanese investors have bought more than US$6.5tn in foreign bonds currently

Bloomberg

Japan's Tankan Business Confidence Unexpectedly Advances to Two-Year High Japan's business confidence unexpectedly rose to a two-year high in September, increasing prospects that the central bank will raise interest rates by the end of the year.

Asian Stocks Climb; Toyota and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Advance on Tankan Asian stocks advanced after business confidence in Japan, the region's biggest economy, unexpectedly rose to a two-year high. Toyota Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. led gains.

Thai Interim Prime Minister Surayud Appoints Central Bank Chief to Cabinet Surayud Chulanont, Thailand's interim prime minister, asked central bank Governor Pridiyathorn Devakula to join his administration in his first cabinet selection.

Canadian Stocks Are Little Changed; Energy Shares Decline; Banks Advance Canadian stocks were little changed as a tumble in oil prices and more signs of a slowing U.S. economy overshadowed gains for metals producers and financial companies.

Canada's Dollar Rises as Report Shows U.S. Manufacturing Slowed Last Month Canada's dollar increased, erasing earlier losses, after a report showed manufacturing in the U.S. last month expanded less than economists forecast.

European Stocks Fail to Sustain Gains; PartyGaming, Nokia, UBS Pace Drop European stocks faltered near a five- year high on concern the region's central bank will keep raising interest rates, threatening economic growth.

German Stocks Fall, Led by Siemens; BMW, DaimlerChrysler Shares Decline German stocks declined, paced by Siemens AG as the company said the management board will forgo a 30 percent pay increase as part of a rescue fund for workers of Benq Corp's German handset unit, a former Siemens division.

Ten-Year Bonds Decline the Most Since July After Business Confidence Rises Japanese five-year notes dropped the most since July after a Bank of Japan survey showed business confidence unexpectedly improved, supporting the case for further interest-rate increases.

Yen Drops to 5-Month Low on Concern Japan's Investors to Buy Foreign Bonds The yen dropped to a five-month low against the dollar on speculation a strengthening economy will give Japanese investors more confidence to buy overseas assets.

South Korea Warns Japan's Prime Minister Not to Visit Yasukuni Shrine South Korea warned Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his senior government officials not to visit a Tokyo war shrine as the nations' leaders plan their first meeting in almost a year.

Manufacturing Expands Less Than Forecast as Impact of Housing Slump Widens Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded less than forecast last month as factories cut payrolls and reduced inventories, contributing to a slowdown in the economy.

Morgan Stanley Gives Employees Hedge Fund Incentives to Avoid Defections Morgan Stanley, the world's biggest securities firm by market value, is offering its top-paid traders and bankers millions of dollars of incentives to avoid defections to rival banks and attract new hires.

Economic Growth in U.S. Slows to `Stall Speed,' Raising Risk of Recession The U.S. economy has slowed more dramatically than most economists expected just a few weeks ago, leaving it more vulnerable to a recession.

FAZ

Pennsylvania

Bewaffneter exekutiert Schulmädchen
Ein 32jähriger Mann hat am Montag in einer Schule im amerikanischen Bundesstaat Pennsylvania gezielt vier Mädchen durch Kopfschüsse getötet und mehrere weitere Schülerinnen zum Teil schwer verletzt. Das Drama ereignete sich an einer Schule der Amish-Glaubensgemeinschaft

The economy

Going down?

Why the housing slump may spell recession

“The region is glutted with new houses,” says Lenn Harley, an estate agent. “The market is dead.”..
The median price of new houses fell by 1.3%.

The supply of existing homes for sale is up 60% from a year ago, is at a 13-year high and is still rising.
But there is no longer any doubt that America's housing bust is both bigger and more abrupt than many expected. Nationally, new home sales are down 17% from a year ago, and sales of existing homes have slumped 12%.
The economy is slowing sharply—economists now expect annualised GDP growth of around 2%, or well below trend, in the third quarter—and much of the macroeconomic impact of the housing bust is still to come.
..Residential investment is probably falling by around 15%-20% at an annual rate.

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Optimists make several counter-arguments. First, they play down the link between mortgage-equity withdrawal and consumption, pointing out that the pace of equity withdrawal has already slowed without dire consequences. Robert Mellman of JPMorgan reckons that the pace at which Americans withdrew cash from their homes fell from a high of 7.9% of disposable personal income in the third quarter of 2005 to 3.3% in the second quarter of 2006. Although consumer spending slowed over that period, it did not collapse. If the mortgage-equity link is weaker than expected, then falling house prices may have a milder effect on consumer spending. Possibly so; though the figures so far do not prove it, not least because a drop in equity withdrawal may take time to show up in lower spending.
IHT

U.S. move costs online betting sites billions
Internet betting sites and payment systems lost billions of dollars in market value after the U.S. government moved to criminalize the processing of online wagers.

Scandals hurt Lula as election goes to second round in Brazil
Brazil's embattled president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, finished first in a presidential vote, but fell just short of the majority he needed to avoid a runoff on Oct. 29.

Supreme Court busy with business
The Supreme Court is about to plunge into an agenda laden with issues affecting the business sector.

Morgan Stanley's big step in China
Morgan Stanley said Monday that it had acquired Nan Tung Bank of China in a deal that would give it a coveted commercial banking license in China.

Iran warns Japanese to act on oil deal soon
Iran's government said Monday that the Japanese company Inpex had a day or two to express its commitment in negotiations over a project to develop an oil field or Iran would turn to other companies

Currencies: Traders start losing faith in euro as growth slows
"We've turned bearish on the euro," after a 7 percent rally against the dollar this year, said George Saravelos, a London-based strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Commodities: Mild U.S. weather likely to depress natural gas prices
Natural gas prices looked primed for a sixth week of falls this week, their longest slide in more than five years, as mild weather cut demand and pushed inventories toward an all-time high. Eight of 14 traders and analysts, or 57 percent, predicted that prices would drop this week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Two said natural gas prices would rise, and four expected little change.

U.S. slowdown raises chances of recession
The U.S. economy has slowed more dramatically than most economists expected just a few weeks ago, leaving it more vulnerable to a recession that could have ripple effects across the globe.

Forecasters at Goldman Sachs Group and AllianceBernstein Holding in New York have cut their growth estimates for the just-ended third quarter to an annual rate of 2 percent or less. They do not foresee much, if any, improvement in the fourth quarter: Cuts in auto production and slumping home sales are likely to overwhelm any lift the economy gets from lower gasoline prices, they say.

Investing: Latin America taming inflation 'boogeyman'
Latin American bonds are posting their biggest gains in more than a year as the region's largest economies, once synonymous with triple-digit inflation, record consumer price increases below U.S. levels.

Dollar-denominated debt issued by Latin American governments returned 7 percent in the third quarter, the best performance since the second quarter of 2005, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch. The gain is almost triple the 2.4 percent return on U.S. Treasury securities during the same period, Merrill data show.

FAZ

FTD

HB

Tag der Deutschen Einheit
Der 3. Oktober

NO HAY PERIODICOS HOY. =-(....

Verluste in Amerika

Die amerikanischen Aktienmärkte sind ohne Schwung in die neue Woche gestartet. Wal Mart-Papiere gaben nach, auch die Aktien von Apple erlitten Kurseinbußen. Eine Großfusion machte Stimmung.

Dax fällt unter 6000 Punkte

Nach dem positiven Handelsstart vom Morgen hatte sich die Börsenstimmung immer mehr eingetrübt. Investoren nahmen Gewinne mit. MAN war eine Ausnahme und notierte an der Dax-Spitze.

Devisen

Die Einflussfaktoren auf die Währung

Die Realwirtschaft

Wichtig für Wechselkurse sind immer die realwirtschaftlichen Bedingungen. Allerdings kommt es dabei weniger auf den tatsächlichen Zustand der Volkswirtschaft an als vilemehr auf die Erwartungen, die die Marktteilnehmer hegen. Eugen Keller, Analyst beim Bankhaus Metzler, schaut bei seinen Analysen vor allem auf das Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts, die Leistungsbilanz und die Frühindikatoren wie beispielsweise den ifo-Index. Je robuster die Wirtschaftsaussichten eines Landes, desto fester sollte sich theoretisch der Wechselkurs zeigen.

Die Kaufkraftparität

In der Theorie sollte das gleiche Produkt auf der ganzen Welt den gleichen Preis haben. Soll heißen, der Big Mac kostet in London genauso viel wie in New York und Moskau. Unterschiedliche Preise gleicht der Wechselkurs aus, zumindest theoretisch und langfristig. Allerdings ist die Kaufkraftparität für den Finanzmarkt kaum nutzbar. „Die Kaufkraftparität ist wie eine Uhr, die stehen geblieben ist. Zwei Mal am Tag zeigt sie die richtige Zeit an, aber den Großteil des Tages ist sie unbrauchbar“, sagt Lothar Hessler. Ginge es nach der Kaufkraftparität müsste der Euro aktuell bei 1,20 Dollar notieren.

Die Zinsdifferenz

Eine zweite Theorie besagt, dass der Wechselkurs die Zinsdifferenz zwischen Ländern ausgleicht. Wenn die Rendite im Ausland höher ist, dann fließt das Kapital dorthin und die gestiegene Nachfrage nach der ausländischen Währung bringt den Wechselkurs hoch. So gleicht die Wechselkursdifferenz den Renditevorteil aus. Aber dies ist auch immer nur zeitweise der Fall. „Die Zinsdifferenz zwischen Dollar und Mark hat von 1998 bis 1999 prima als Prognoseinstrument funktioniert. Aber derzeit ist kaum noch ein Zinsvorsprung vorhanden“, so Keller.

Die Kapitalströme

Lediglich einem Anteil von fünf bis zehn Prozent der internationalen Kapitalströme liegen noch realwirtschaftliche Transaktionen zu Grunde. Der Großteil beruht also auf spekulativen Anlagen. Daher spielen zu Beispiel die Investitionen an der Wall Street eine große Rolle. „Früher gab es beispielsweise eine hohe Korrelation zwischen Rohstoffpreisen und dem australischen Dollar. Daher waren die Rohstoffpreise dort ein gutes Prognoseinstrument“, erinnert sich Keller. Mit dem Technologieboom an der Nasdaq interessierten sich die Anleger aber nicht mehr für australische Rohstoffwerte. Daher verlor dieser Indikator seine Prognosefähigkeit.

Die Intermarketbewegungen

Devisenmärkte agieren nicht im luftleeren Raum, sondern reagieren auf die Entwicklungen an den Renten-, Aktien, und Rohstoffmärkten. Beispielsweise ist ein schwacher Aktienmarkt gemeinhin gut für festverzinsliche Anlagen. Diese stützen wieder den Devisenmarkt. Niedrige Rohstoffpreise sind für Europa als Importeur förderlich, erklärt Keller, der bei seinen Prognosen immer die Intermarket-Analyse mit einbezieht.

Die Stimmungsindikatoren

Wichtig für die Prognosen sind auch die Positionen der Marktteilnehmer. An den Terminmärkten in Chicago werden beispielsweise die eingegangenen Future-Kontrakte für Währungen nach kommerziellen und nicht-kommerziellen Investoren ausgewiesen. „Wenn dort 30.000 Kontrakte auf einen fallenden Yen offen sind, dann weiß ich, dass die Marktteilnehmer bereits positioniert sind“, so Keller. „Das Aufwärtspotenzial für den Dollar ist somit begrenzt.“

Aber auch die Prognosen der großen Investmenthäuser schaut sich der Analyst an und bewertet sie nach der Contrarian-Theorie. Wenn alle Häuser optimistisch sind, funktioniert der Aufschwung meistens nicht, so Keller. Für eine Trendwende muss die Stimmung pessimistisch sein, was ihn derzeit zuversichtlich für den Euro stimmt. Denn während zum Jahresanfang die Prognosen für den Euro im Durchschnitt bei 1,0450 Dollar lagen, sind sie im Juni auf 0,9350 Dollar gesunken.